Split in the Islamic Republic over a deal with the US after Trump's defeat

The Republicans' defeat in the US midterm congressional elections on 3 November has divided the Islamic Republic over a deal with Washington. On 5 and 6 November, newspapers and figures close to different factions of the regime openly disagreed over whether to use Donald Trump's weakening to reach a deal or to keep up the pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.

On one side, newspapers close to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, urged lawmakers to pursue a negotiated deal and said the regime should use Trump's defeat to secure binding economic commitments. The newspaper affiliated with Tehran's municipality also called for swift diplomacy, warning that disruption to shipping had worn down supply chains and pushed up food prices. A reformist newspaper welcomed a proposal by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to ease tension in the Strait of Hormuz within two days.

The IRGC camp: keep the strait closed

On the other side, the Tehran daily Kayhan claimed that Washington's political make-up has no effect on what it calls the Islamic Republic's "operational dominance" over Hormuz, and a newspaper affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wrote that the regime should use the waterway regardless of which party controls Congress. A regular commentator on state television suggested keeping the Strait of Hormuz fully closed so that the US naval blockade becomes as costly for Washington as the war.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Republic's leader, in a message published on 4 November called any hope of a change in US behaviour after the shift in party control a "serious mistake" and warned that any inclination to surrender weakens domestic support. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, called the election result a strategic and political defeat for Trump on X; however, The New York Times has reported that in private talks he has shown readiness to discuss the nuclear programme and, together with Araghchi and Ghalibaf, plays a role in the Qatar-mediated negotiations.

An economy that no longer exports oil

Behind the dispute lies an economy brought to a halt by war and blockade. According to data from the ship-tracking company Kpler, no oil cargo has been loaded for export from Iran since early August. The damage from last year's forced shutdowns to Iran's economy has also been estimated at about $34 billion.

On Thursday the Islamic Republic sent a new nuclear proposal to the United States via Qatar, but tied progress on it to the acceptance of its seven conditions. Trump, for his part, said after meeting his national security team that he would soon decide on resuming attacks.

No oil cargo has been loaded for export from Iran since early August, yet the regime's factions are still fighting over a deal or keeping Hormuz closed.