Islamic Republic's oil exports fell to zero in October; Vortexa: US blockade has worked

The Islamic Republic's seaborne crude oil exports fell to zero in October. Data from the energy intelligence platform Vortexa, published on Tuesday, 13 October 2026, shows that the US naval blockade has effectively closed the Islamic Republic's oil route out of the Persian Gulf.

According to Vortexa, the Islamic Republic's seaborne crude exports averaged about 230,000 barrels per day in the first two weeks of September, but fell to zero from the second week of September and stayed at that level through 5 October. The volume of the Islamic Republic's crude stuck at sea on tankers has dropped to 83 million barrels, about 43 million of which is trapped by the blockade west of the Strait of Hormuz. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports are also down 48 percent from the previous month, to their lowest level since at least January 2023.

Naval blockade and the end of the Chinese buyer

Claire Jungman, head of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, has said the blockade has done what years of sanctions could not. According to her, China no longer urgently needs the Islamic Republic's cargoes as it once did, because Russian oil has filled the gap.

Meanwhile, crude exports from other Persian Gulf countries recovered in September to more than 81 percent of their pre-war level, largely thanks to Saudi Arabia raising its exports again. Russia's crude exports reached 3.79 million barrels per day in September and now make up 80 percent of the combined exports of the Islamic Republic, Russia and Venezuela.

Consequences for Iran's economy

Oil has been the Islamic Republic's largest source of foreign-currency revenue. The complete loss of this income comes as the International Monetary Fund has forecast that Iran's economy will shrink by 7.6 percent this year, while attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz have cut maritime traffic to about a fifth. The citizens of Iran pay the price of this deadlock with inflation, soaring prices and shortages, while the Islamic Republic continues to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage.

The Islamic Republic's crude oil exports have been zero since the second week of September, and 43 million barrels of oil are trapped behind the blockade line.