Winter gas shortage: cuts feared in 13 provinces as Mohammad Reza Aref admits deficit

Mohammad Reza Aref, Masoud Pezeshkian's first vice-president, acknowledged on Monday, 2 November 2026, that Iran faces a gas shortage this coming winter and asked people to cut consumption. At the same time, managers of the National Iranian Gas Company say the gas deficit at peak demand will reach 400 million cubic metres a day and that 13 provinces are at risk of restrictions or cuts.

Speaking at a meeting of the "Article 8 working group", Aref said the authorities must speak "honestly" with the people, and blamed the shortage on problems of past years and war damage. He warned that subscribers who do not respect the consumption pattern will pay more for gas.

A deficit of 400 million cubic metres

Saeed Tavakoli, CEO of the National Iranian Gas Company, estimates the capacity shortfall and supply imbalance at the winter peak at about 400 million cubic metres, compared with 250 to 300 million cubic metres in previous years. According to him, the military strikes of 18 March on four gas refineries knocked out about 230 million cubic metres of production capacity, and about 130 million cubic metres of it has still not returned.

Tavakoli has asked families to keep their homes between 18 and 21 degrees and says consumption by households, businesses and small industries rose by about 30% in five days.

Provinces at risk of gas cuts

Gas company officials spoke last week of possible restrictions in 11 provinces; the list has now grown to 13. Mazandaran, Golestan and North Khorasan are described as the most worrying, while Tehran, Alborz, Semnan, Kerman, Isfahan, East and West Azarbaijan, Ardabil, Kurdistan and Razavi Khorasan are also at risk of fluctuations or restrictions.

The gas shortage feeds directly into electricity. Hamidreza Azizi, a member of parliament, says 80% of Iran's electricity depends on gas and fossil fuels, and the Energy Ministry changed the way electricity bills are calculated from late October. Saeed Tavakoli has warned that burning liquid fuel in power plants near cities will worsen air pollution. These warnings come as the removal of the preferential exchange rate for 4,533 goods is also putting new pressure on prices.

The winter peak gas deficit has reached 400 million cubic metres a day, and 13 provinces are at risk of gas cuts.