Winter 2026 gas shortage: blackout warnings and 60 to 90 days of gas cuts in northern provinces

Islamic Republic officials and electricity industry figures are warning of a winter gas shortage this year and the possibility of new blackouts. According to Kayhan London, an official at the Golestan governorate has said that the three provinces of Golestan, Mazandaran and North Khorasan will face 60 to 90 days of gas cuts in the autumn and winter.

According to Kayhan London, Mohammad Hadi Faqihzadeh, chairman of the board of Iran's Electricity Industry Syndicate, has warned that the gas shortage will increase pressure on power plants' liquid fuel reserves and could raise the likelihood of blackouts being imposed. He said the electricity industry needs around $10 billion in investment a year just to maintain the current situation and keep up with growing demand.

A 130 million cubic metre gas deficit after the attack on South Pars

Reza Sepahvand, spokesman for parliament's energy committee, told the same outlet that the country's gas imbalance has grown by 130 million cubic metres compared with last year because of the attack on the South Pars phases. He said negotiations with Turkmenistan to supply gas to the northern provinces are continuing, and acknowledged that, because these areas sit at the end of the pipeline, they will inevitably also see some power cuts.

Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokeswoman, has also said the government is trying to keep the country from running short of gas, but that problems may arise in the northern provinces. According to Kayhan London, daily gas consumption is about 42 million cubic metres in Mazandaran, about 20 million in Golestan and about 9 million in North Khorasan.

The government's debt to the electricity industry

According to the latest audited financial statements of the Tavanir company, cited by Kayhan London, the government's debt to the Energy Ministry has passed 240,000 billion tomans and is expected to exceed 340,000 billion tomans once the audits for the Iranian year 1404 (2025-26) are completed.

The energy shortage is worsening as Iran's economy is under the pressure of war and the US naval blockade; oil exports have effectively stopped and the dollar has passed 272,000 tomans, and Mohsen Paknejad, the oil minister, has resigned.

The gas deficit has grown by 130 million cubic metres since the attack on South Pars, and the northern provinces are first in line for cuts.

Sources

• Kayhan London