US and Israel prepare new attack plan against Islamic Republic

The US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for new strikes on the Islamic Republic after the US midterm elections on 3 November. The plans were revealed by The New York Times on Wednesday, 21 October, citing US officials who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter; the final decision on a new attack on the Islamic Republic still rests with Donald Trump.

According to these officials, Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of War, discussed new strikes with Benjamin Netanyahu during his recent trip to Israel. Planners are considering a short but heavy operation, and some of them believe that three days of intensive strikes could inflict such economic damage on the government that it would force Tehran to make diplomatic concessions. The two countries' militaries have at the same time stepped up exercises and training flights over Iraq; flights that US officials had earlier suspected were meant to provoke the Islamic Republic's air defences.

Possible targets of a renewed attack

According to the report, the Islamic Republic's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenal are on the target list, but some officials have said refineries and oil facilities would be left out to avoid pushing up petrol prices. The underground facilities at Pickaxe Mountain (Kolang Gaz La) near Natanz may also be targeted; Trump has said he is considering the use of bunker-buster bombs, but experts doubt these bombs could destroy facilities buried deep in granite rock.

US officials have called the start of an operation this month unlikely; Trump has promised not to attack before the vote. Even so, the full deployment of forces, including three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special forces, will be complete by early November; the dispatch of the carrier Theodore Roosevelt is part of this same build-up. A White House official neither confirmed nor denied the existence of the plans and said Trump is keeping all options on the table to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Israel's election and IRGC threats

Israel's election on 27 October could complicate the calculations; analysts say that if Netanyahu is defeated and stays on as caretaker prime minister, starting a war would be harder for him. Dana Stroul, a former Pentagon official, has said neither leader has given a convincing explanation of how a new war would break the strategic deadlock. On the other side, Islamic Republic officials have threatened that, if attacked, they will extend their response to data centres and undersea internet cables; at the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced it is abandoning its defensive doctrine.

The report was published a few hours after White House sources reported a shift in the US position towards a pre-emptive strike.

The US-Israeli plan for a three-day attack is ready and the full deployment of forces will be complete by early November; the decision rests with Trump.