Saudi intelligence assessment: the IRGC determines the targets of Houthi attacks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased the Islamic Republic's military aid to Yemen's Houthis and has supplied targeting information for many of the group's recent drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia. The assessment is based on intelligence gathered by Saudi Arabia and the anti-Houthi coalition in Yemen, and was published by The Wall Street Journal on Saturday, 17 October 2026.

According to these assessments, the Islamic Republic's aid to the Houthis, its allies in Yemen, is not limited to sending weapons but also includes training, intelligence and tactical advice. An official of the anti-Houthi coalition has said that IRGC officers are present on the front line and play a role in directing the drone and missile attacks. According to sources close to the forces opposing the Houthis, IRGC officers in Yemen have helped deploy missiles and radars that threaten the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Houthis are now combining infantry attacks with missiles and fiber-optic-guided drones.

The Houthi advance and attacks on Riyadh

In a surprise attack in late August, the Houthis seized the port of Mocha and areas around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the main route for Saudi oil exports, and since then they have targeted Saudi tankers, energy facilities and airports. The Saudi-led coalition says King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh has been the target of Houthi attacks at least 20 times since late September. According to Saudi Arabia's civil aviation authority, the attack on the airport on 10 October left 12 dead and 309 wounded, and Saudi officials have put the death toll of the recent attacks across the country at at least 19.

Danny Citrinowicz, the former head of the Iran desk in Israeli military intelligence, called the coordination between Tehran and the Houthis very strong at the operational level and their relationship a strategic partnership, not a simple one of patron and client. Adam Baron, a researcher at the New America think tank, also said the Houthis' advances undoubtedly depend on the support of the Islamic Republic and its allies.

Tehran's denial in the face of evidence

Raed Qarmali, Saudi Arabia's deputy foreign minister, said on Thursday 15 October that the Islamic Republic, in violation of Security Council resolutions, continues to arm and train the Houthis and to encourage them to escalate their attacks. The Islamic Republic's foreign ministry denied any role in the Houthis' operations on Friday 16 October, and its spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei had earlier called the Houthis an independent actor. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, also denied Tehran's military involvement. However, a UN panel of experts reported in 2024 that the Houthis had set up joint operations rooms in Lebanon and Iraq.

According to a Saudi intelligence assessment, IRGC officers on the front line in Yemen are directing the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, while Tehran denies any role.