Abdolnaser Hemmati at IMF meeting: Iran's economic collapse is an illusion

Abdolnaser Hemmati, head of the Islamic Republic's central bank, at this week's IMF meeting in Bangkok called claims of a collapse of Iran's economy an illusion and said that, despite US sanctions and the war, the country's economy has shown resilience.

According to Hemmati, the central bank's priorities are containing inflation, preserving financial stability and keeping banking and payment services running, and the bank has provided the foreign currency for importing food and medicine. He asked the IMF to take the war, sanctions and payment restrictions more into account when assessing the performance of Iran's economy.

The claim of resilience against international data

Hemmati's claim comes as the IMF itself forecast last Tuesday that Iran's economy will shrink by 7.6 percent in 2026. The World Bank had also earlier estimated that with inflation of 74 percent, Iran's poverty rate will reach 38.4 percent and more than 2.6 million additional people will be pushed below the poverty line.

Data from the Islamic Republic's own Statistical Center also gives a different picture from the central bank head's words: point-to-point inflation reached 89.8 percent in the latest month, and annual inflation rose from 69.9 percent in Mordad (July–August) to 73.6 percent in Shahrivar (August–September). According to the same figures, the price of cooking oil has risen by more than 250 percent in a year and rents by more than 30 percent.

Iranians' daily lives

In recent months the government's own officials have also spoken of the depth of the crisis: Masoud Pezeshkian admitted that, with the money available, paying employees' salaries takes precedence over importing gasoline, and public hospitals face shortages of equipment. Citizens report electricity bills rising several-fold, the high cost of medicine and car parts, and the inability to buy housing.

Abdolnaser Hemmati was previously economy minister in Masoud Pezeshkian's government, and in February–March 2025 the Islamic Republic's parliament impeached and dismissed him over currency fluctuations, the fall in the rial's value and the rising cost of basic goods.

The head of the Islamic Republic's central bank called economic collapse an illusion, while point-to-point inflation has reached nearly 90 percent.