US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, 11 October 2026, that since the US naval blockade resumed, the Islamic Republic's access to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been cut off and the regime's share of oil sales in recent months has been zero. The same day, Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, also told the network that the Islamic Republic's behaviour shows it is pursuing a nuclear weapon, but that Donald Trump will not allow it.
According to Voice of America, Bessent said the Islamic Republic now has no oil cargo on the water and its cash flow has turned negative. Using an English expression meaning to admit defeat, he said the regime is backing down and collapsing. According to him, regime figures can no longer travel to London to see relatives or to Paris to see business partners, or access their money in Switzerland.
Bessent's forecast for the Islamic Republic's future
According to Iran International, Bessent said Trump does not expect direct military confrontation at least until the November midterm elections, and that two to four more months of blockade will force the Islamic Republic to back down. He said the regime cannot pay its forces' salaries and listed three scenarios for the future: a popular uprising, infighting within the Revolutionary Guards, or Tehran accepting a deal without a nuclear programme.
Bessent had earlier announced the replacement of "maximum pressure" with a campaign of "total isolation" of the Islamic Republic, which includes the naval blockade, restrictions on foreign flights, the closing of land routes and the seizure of digital assets. Kpler analysts had also warned that if the blockade continues, the Islamic Republic's oil export revenue will fall to zero by mid-December.
Waltz: Tehran's proposal at the UN was "bad"
Mike Waltz said the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities are being built deep underground and that a country seeking only civilian nuclear energy does not need weapons-grade enrichment. He cited the United Arab Emirates as an example, which has a civilian nuclear programme and accepts international inspections. According to Waltz, Tehran put forward a proposal for a deal on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, but the proposal was bad and Trump does not accept a bad deal.
The US Treasury Secretary says the Islamic Republic's share of oil sales in recent months has been zero.
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