Plan and Budget Organisation warns oil revenue for 1406 could fall to zero

Mohammad Ghasemi, deputy for coordination at the Islamic Republic's Plan and Budget Organisation, said in remarks published on Monday 9 November 2026 that the authorities must be ready for a scenario of zero oil revenue when drawing up the budget for the Iranian year 1406 (starting March 2027). According to him, next year's budget may be one of the most difficult since the nationalisation of the oil industry.

Ghasemi said that in the hard scenario, the Plan and Budget Organisation is examining the capacity of taxes, customs revenue and the issuing of debt securities. Raising the value-added tax rate or changing the shares of the government and municipalities in that tax is also on the table. He named employees' salaries, retirees' pensions and the principal and interest on debt securities as the payment priorities.

Ration coupons and borrowing from the central bank

The deputy head of the Plan and Budget Organisation acknowledged that damage to infrastructure and falling export revenue from petroleum products and gas have limited the funds for the kalabarg ration-coupon scheme. He said the government had not borrowed directly from the central bank, but the central bank had provided about 100,000 billion tomans to pay for the coupons; money that in practice increases liquidity and inflation.

The 1406 budget circular foresees an average 35 percent rise in civil servants' salaries on a reverse-tiered basis, limits on new commitments and an annual cut of at least five percent in organisational units. Meanwhile, the head of the Islamic Republic parliament's social committee said a few days ago that eight million Iranians live in absolute poverty.

The naval blockade and "Iron Gate"

The warning comes as Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, says the US naval blockade has in recent months stopped more than 25 billion dollars of the Islamic Republic's crude oil exports. On Saturday 7 November CENTCOM set up the "Iron Gate" task force to close land routes and the Caspian Sea to weapons, dual-use goods and the regime's illicit revenue, and Donald Trump said on Sunday that the plan is being implemented.

The US Treasury on Friday 6 November also sanctioned eight Canada-based payment service companies for facilitating the Islamic Republic's financial transactions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned financial institutions that they can either support the Iranian regime or have access to the US financial system.

A confidential document published earlier had shown that part of the Islamic Republic's oil was handed to Hossein Shamkhani without collateral and that the regime controls jetties and oil storage tanks in China.

The Islamic Republic's Plan and Budget Organisation is weighing the 1406 budget on the assumption that oil revenue falls to zero.