The Islamic Republic's central bank said in its latest report that Iran's economy shrank by 12.1% in spring 2026 compared with the same period last year. According to the same report, Iran's economic growth in the month of Tir (22 June to 22 July) was negative 5.6% compared with the same month a year earlier. The figures were published on Saturday, 10 October 2026, by independent Persian-language media outside the country, including Voice of America and IranWire.
According to Voice of America, the central bank's figure is larger than the estimate of the Statistical Centre of Iran, which had earlier put the spring contraction at 10.1%. Even the statistics of the Islamic Republic's own official bodies thus point to one of the sharpest economic declines in Iran in recent years.
Falling oil, industry and services output
According to central bank data, value added fell by 12.2% in industry and mining, by 10% in oil and by 4.2% in services in Tir. Agriculture was the only major sector of the economy to grow, by 6%, but this could not offset the fall in total output. According to Voice of America, the smaller contraction in Tir compared with spring was mainly due to a relative improvement in industry and mining.
OPEC estimates that Iran's oil production in Tir was about 2.45 million barrels a day, and fell to about 2 million barrels a day after the US naval blockade resumed; that is 18% below spring and 35% below the pre-war level.
The Islamic Republic's central bank says Iran's economy shrank by more than 12% in spring 2026.
The naval blockade and the outlook for the coming months
The United States halted the first round of its naval blockade of Iran on 18 June after a ceasefire understanding, and according to Voice of America, this pause helped slow the economic decline in Tir. But on 14 July, after the IRGC resumed attacks on ships and violated the ceasefire, Washington reinstated the blockade.
Voice of America expects the contraction to have intensified again from the month of Mordad (from late July). Electricity and gas shortages as winter approaches, which have already led to power cuts for industry and electricity imports from Turkey and Turkmenistan, along with the US Treasury's "total isolation" campaign and the sanctions on shadow-fleet tankers, will add further pressure on non-oil trade, household consumption and the services sector. A shortage of foreign currency and the rapid fall in the value of the rial have also made citizens' daily lives harder.
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